Plutonium explosive dispersal modeling using the MACCS2 computer code
The purpose of this paper is to derive the necessary parameters to be used to establish a defensible methodology to perform explosive dispersal modeling of respirable plutonium using Gaussian methods. A particular code, MACCS2, has been chosen for this modeling effort due to its application of sophisticated meteorological statistical sampling in accordance with the philosophy of Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Regulatory Guide 1.145, ``Atmospheric Dispersion Models for Potential Accident Consequence Assessments at Nuclear Power Plants``. A second advantage supporting the selection of the MACCS2 code for modeling purposes is that meteorological data sets are readily available at most Department of Energy (DOE) and NRC sites. This particular MACCS2 modeling effort focuses on the calculation of respirable doses and not ground deposition. Once the necessary parameters for the MACCS2 modeling are developed and presented, the model is benchmarked against empirical test data from the Double Tracks shot of project Roller Coaster (Shreve 1965) and applied to a hypothetical plutonium explosive dispersal scenario. Further modeling with the MACCS2 code is performed to determine a defensible method of treating the effects of building structure interaction on the respirable fraction distribution as a function of height. These results are related to the Clean Slate 2 and Clean Slate 3 bunkered shots of Project Roller Coaster. Lastly a method is presented to determine the peak 99.5% sector doses on an irregular site boundary in the manner specified in NRC Regulatory Guide 1.145 (1983). Parametric analyses are performed on the major analytic assumptions in the MACCS2 model to define the potential errors that are possible in using this methodology.
- Research Organization:
- Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Assistant Secretary for Human Resources and Administration, Washington, DC (United States)
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-ENG-36
- OSTI ID:
- 677008
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR--98-1901; ON: DE99000564
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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