Statistical analysis of stratospheric temperature and ozone profile data for trends and model comparison. Final report, 1 July 1990-30 June 1992

Technical Report · Sun Nov 01 04:00:00 EST 1992

OSTI ID:6764937

Tiao, G C

Work performed during the project period July 1, 1990 to June 30, 1992 on the statistical analysis of stratospheric temperature data, rawinsonde temperature data, and ozone profile data for the detection of trends is described. Our principal topics of research are trend analysis of NOAA stratospheric temperature data over the period 1978-1989; trend analysis of rawinsonde temperature data for the period 1964-1988; trend analysis of Umkehr ozone profile data for the period 1977-1991; and comparison of observed ozone and temperature trends in the lower stratosphere. Analysis of NOAA stratospheric temperature data indicates the existence of large negative trends at 0.4 mb level, with magnitudes increasing with latitudes away from the equator. Trend analysis of rawinsonde temperature data over 184 stations shows significant positive trends about 0.2 C per decade at surface to 500 mb range, decreasing to negative trends about -0.3 C at 100 to 50 mb range, and increasing slightly at 30 mb level. There is little evidence of seasonal variation in trends. Analysis of Umkehr ozone data for 12 northern hemispheric stations shows significant negative trends about -.5 percent per year in Umkehr layers 7-9 and layer 3, but somewhat less negative trends in layers 4-6. There is no pronounced seasonal variation in trends, especially in layers 4-9. A comparison was made of empirical temperature trends from rawinsonde data in the lower stratosphere with temperature changes determined from a one-dimensional radiative transfer calculation that prescribed a given ozone change over the altitude region, surface to 50 km, obtained from trend analysis of ozonsonde and Umkehr profile data. The empirical and calculated temperature trends are found in substantive agreement in profile shape and magnitude.

• Research Organization: Chicago Univ., IL (United States)
• OSTI ID: 6764937
• Report Number(s): N-93-12877; NASA-CR--191248; NAS--1.26:191248; CNN: NAGW-2057
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
540120* -- Environment
Atmospheric-- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport-- (1990-)
AMBIENT TEMPERATURE
ANNUAL VARIATIONS
CLIMATIC CHANGE
DATA
DATA ANALYSIS
DISTRIBUTION
EARTH ATMOSPHERE
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
INFORMATION
LAYERS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MONITORING
NUMERICAL DATA
OZONE LAYER
SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
STATISTICAL DATA
STATISTICAL MODELS
STRATOSPHERE
TEMPERATURE DEPENDENCE
TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION
TEMPERATURE MONITORING
TIME DEPENDENCE
VARIATIONS