Modeling the effects of uncertainty on fear of nuclear waste: Differences among science, business and environmental group members

Conference · Thu Oct 01 04:00:00 EDT 1992

OSTI ID:6744970

Bassett, G ^[1]; Jenkins-Smith, H ^[2]

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1. Illinois Univ., Chicago, IL (United States). Dept. of Economics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States)
2. New Mexico Univ., Albuquerque, NM (United States). Dept. of Political Science Argonne National Lab., IL (United States)

This paper analyzes the relationships between the subjective assessment of riskiness of managing nuclear waste and the level of certainty regarding the assessment. Uncertainty can be operationalized in two ways. The direct approach asks a person to assess their own subjective beliefs about a potential hazard. The indirect approach assesses how readily an individual will change his or her beliefs when confronted with new information that conflicts with prior beliefs. This paper tests for the relationships between these two distinct operationalizations of uncertainty and overall assessments of the risks posed by radioactive wastes. First we analyze the relationships between stated levels of uncertainty about the effects of radiation on the level of perceived risks from radioactive wastes. Second, we assess the linkage between willingness to alter prior beliefs about the risks of radioactive wastes in response to new information provided by a neutral source'' (or responsiveness of beliefs) and uncertainty. Using data taken from random mail surveys of members of scientific, business, and environmental groups in Colorado and New Mexico in the summer of 1990, we test hypotheses that (a) greater uncertainty is associated with greater perceived risks, and (b) greater responsiveness of beliefs to new information is associated with greater uncertainty. The import of these hypotheses concerns the dynamics of uncertainty in controversial technical policy issues, wherein perceived risks are a primary ingredient in policy positions taken by participants in policy disputes.

• Research Organization: Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.
• Sponsoring Organization: DOE; USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
• DOE Contract Number: W-31109-ENG-38
• OSTI ID: 6744970
• Report Number(s): ANL/EAIS/CP-78151; CONF-9210266--1; ON: DE93004862
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

052000 -- Nuclear Fuels-- Waste Management
054000* -- Nuclear Fuels-- Health & Safety
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTES FROM NUCLEAR FACILITIES
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS
990200 -- Mathematics & Computers
ATTITUDES
DATA COVARIANCES
MANAGEMENT
MATERIALS
MATHEMATICAL LOGIC
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MATHEMATICS
PUBLIC ANXIETY
PUBLIC OPINION
RADIOACTIVE MATERIALS
RADIOACTIVE WASTE MANAGEMENT
RADIOACTIVE WASTES
RISK ASSESSMENT
STATISTICS
SURVEYS
WASTE MANAGEMENT
WASTES