Subjective-probability-based scenarios for uncertain input parameters: Stratospheric ozone depletion, December 1990

Technical Report · Sat Dec 01 04:00:00 EST 1990

OSTI ID:6720966

Hammitt, J K

The paper presents and applies a method to choose sets of input conditions (scenarios) that efficiently represent knowledge about the joint probability distribution of inputs. A simple score function approximately relating inputs to a policy-relevant output--in this case, globally averaged stratospheric ozone depletion--is developed. The probability density function for the score-function value is analytically derived from a subjective joint probability density for the inputs. Scenarios are defined by selected quantiles of the score function. Using this method, scenarios can be systematically selected in terms of the approximate probability distribution function for the output of concern, and probability intervals for the joint effect of the inputs can be readily constructed.

• Research Organization: Rand Corp., Santa Monica, CA (United States)
• OSTI ID: 6720966
• Report Number(s): PB-93-143741/XAB; RAND/N--3140-1-EPA/JMO/RC
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
540110*
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS
990200 -- Mathematics & Computers
ANALYTICAL SOLUTION
CALCULATION METHODS
CLIMATIC CHANGE
COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
DATA
DENSITY
DISTRIBUTION
EARTH ATMOSPHERE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
ECONOMICS
FUNCTIONAL ANALYSIS
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
HYPOTHESIS
INFORMATION
INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MATHEMATICS
MONTE CARLO METHOD
NUMERICAL DATA
OZONE
PHYSICAL PROPERTIES
PROBABILITY
RISK ASSESSMENT
SIMULATION
STRATOSPHERE
THEORETICAL DATA