Ex ante appraisal of new technology: sorghum in northeast Brazil

Journal Article · Sat Nov 01 04:00:00 EST 1980 · Am. J. Agric. Econ.; (United States)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2307/1239773· OSTI ID:6711612

Goodwin, J B; Sanders, J H; de Hollanda, A D

Ex ante technology evaluation by simulating farm conditions appears to be useful for ascertaining the feasibility of new technology and the farm-level constraints to its introduction. High levels of risk aversion have led many to be pessimistic about the potential for raising the income of small farmers with new agricultural technology, especially in resource poor regions such as the Brazilian Northeast. In developing countries, research and extension efforts generally have concentrated on the agricultural regions with the best resources and often the largest farmers. Outmigration to urban areas or decentralization of industrialization have been recommended to raise the income of small farmers in these poorer agricultural resource areas. However, income increases are possible in agriculture with new technology and associated policy measures. The model indicates that new technology, appropriate for the farmers and the region, should be adopted by farmers highly averse to risk even with an overestimation of the variance of the returns. For nonadopters, improved estimates of the distribution of returns will occur over time as their neighbors adopt and they obtain more information on the new technology. Crop research programs may need to consder several alternative technologies, as the model results for the sorghum technology adopted were highly influenced by the farmer's risk-aversion coefficient.

• OSTI ID: 6711612
• Journal Information: Am. J. Agric. Econ.; (United States), Journal Name: Am. J. Agric. Econ.; (United States) Vol. 62:4; ISSN AJAEB
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290400 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Energy Resources
290500 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Research
Development
Demonstration
& Commercialization
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
320303* -- Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization-- Industrial & Agricultural Processes-- Equipment & Processes
AGRICULTURE
BRAZIL
CEREALS
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
GRAMINEAE
GRASS
INDUSTRY
LATIN AMERICA
PLANTS
RISK ASSESSMENT
SORGHUM
SOUTH AMERICA
TECHNOLOGY UTILIZATION