Error pattern evaluation and uncertainty quantification for a regional-scale (Lagrangian statistical trajectory) atmospheric transport and acid-deposition model: Volume 1, Main report
The present study was intended to evaluate a range of statistical performance measures and to develop and test several new methods applied intensively to one model; however, the objectives and scope were still limited. Determination of the uncertainty in model-derived source/receptor relationships did not appear to be feasible from a comparison of the model predictions with the limited number of observations of deposition currently available. At best, it may be possible to estimate or place bounds on the uncertainty in predictions of deposition and to understand the character of those uncertainties. The performance of a model in predicting deposition and air-quality changes in response to large emission changes, outside the bounds of experience with historical evaluated data, cannot be confidently determined by the present methods. New approaches appear to be needed to provide a better understanding of the character of model errors and to estimate the uncertainties in future predictions within a limited domain, based on a comparison of predictions with historical observations. We hope that the results reported on here will be useful and can be applied to other models, as well as refined by further application with more extensive data. 82 refs., 37 figs., 26 tabs.
- Research Organization:
- Argonne National Lab., IL (USA). Energy and Environmental Systems Div.
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-31109-ENG-38
- OSTI ID:
- 6709937
- Report Number(s):
- ANL/EES-TM-355-Vol.1; ON: DE89003772
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: Portions of this document are illegible in microfiche products
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
ACID RAIN
EVALUATION
ENVIRONMENTAL TRANSPORT
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
AIR POLLUTION CONTROL
COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
DEPOSITION
GLOBAL ASPECTS
NAPAP
PERFORMANCE TESTING
POLLUTION SOURCES
SULFUR DIOXIDE
ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATIONS
CHALCOGENIDES
CONTROL
MASS TRANSFER
OXIDES
OXYGEN COMPOUNDS
POLLUTION CONTROL
RAIN
SULFUR COMPOUNDS
SULFUR OXIDES
TESTING
500200* - Environment
Atmospheric- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport- (-1989)