Forecasting energy demand in the developing world

Journal Article · Sun Nov 01 04:00:00 EST 1998 · Energy Sources

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/00908319808970105· OSTI ID:669973

Dahl, C A ^[1]; McDonald, L ^[2]

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1. Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States). Div. of Economics and Business
2. Hazen and Sawyer, Fort Collins, CO (United States)

The developing world with three-fourths of the world`s population consumes less than one-quarter of the world`s commercial energy. As these countries grow and develop they will consume a larger share of the world`s commercial energy. The goal of this article is to estimate the changes in the developing world`s energy consumption in the coming decades. The authors use all available econometric estimates of income and price elasticities and other historical trends for income, population, and price growth to forecast developing world energy consumption for the next thirty years. Although the authors find large uncertainties over the forecasts, most scenarios suggest that energy demand in the developing world will increase over 5.5% per year and that global energy consumption can be expected to more than triple in the coming three decades.

• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• OSTI ID: 669973
• Journal Information: Energy Sources, Journal Name: Energy Sources Journal Issue: 9 Vol. 20; ISSN 0090-8312; ISSN EGYSAO
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY MODELS
FORECASTING