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Ramifications of the Soviet energy situation: political, security and economic implications of the USSR's energy posture through the year 2000

Thesis/Dissertation ·
OSTI ID:6684328

This study analyzes the Soviet energy situation at present and projects supply and demand probabilities through the end of the century. It conludes that the Soviet Union will itself remain a net exporter of fuels in this period, but the East European requirement will severely strain Soviet export capabilities. In particular, it appears that the USSR's petroleum production will be inadequate to satiate the growing domestic and Soviet Bloc requirements for oil and, by the end of the decade, the communist countries of Europe will become net importers of petroleum. Natural gas will grow in importance, and exports will grow impressively. Coal production will be inadequate to meet planners' expectations and hydroelectric and nuclear power will make only marginal incremental contributions. The dilemma facing Soviet energy authorities is how to allocate the growing scarcity of oil production and to obtain the supplies that will be needed from abroad. The depletion of Soviet petroleum exports to West Europe will impinge greatly on the Kremlin's ability to purchase high-technology goods and grain from the West. Energy policy issues will arise as major points of division not only between the Soviet Union and the United States, but as items of contention between Washington and its Allies. Policy-makers in this country will increasingly deal with East-West energy issues in a national security context.

OSTI ID:
6684328
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English