Least-cost planning in developing countries

Journal Article · Mon Feb 01 04:00:00 EST 1993 · Public Utilities Fortnightly; (United States)

OSTI ID:6683672

Merrill, H M; Crousillat, E O; Doerfner, P; Alvarado, P

The electric power industry in developing countries, as in the rest of the world, faces least-cost planning problems characterized by a range of supply-side and demand-side options, multiple conflicting objectives, and pervasive uncertainty. Two recent least-cost planning studies were sponsored by the World Bank and carried out by utilities in Hungary and Costa Rica. Although the circumstances in the two countries are very different, and the studies were carried out by different teams, they reached similar conclusions. First, both studies concluded that availability of capital was a key ingredient in developing least-cost plans. This conclusion is particularly important for developing countries since their capital requirements for power supply expansion are huge, thus indicating the need for seekin new ways of mobilizing financial resources and the adoption of policies to encourage more efficient production and end use of power. Second, both utilities were able to do thorough multi-objective and risk analyses. Third, both studies found that the multi-objective and risk analyses led to some conclusions which differed from those reached by traditional optimization, and included some surprises. In particular, the Hungarian analysis pointed to more gas turbine capacity than was previously envisaged, and found that electricity imports were an attractive option. Implementation of load management was also a winner, at least as a hedge. The Costa Rican analysis concluded that varying the power supply mix was not desireable: the utility should continue its reliance on hydro, with minor additions of thermal capacity, but eschewing baseload coal or heavy geothermal development, and with diesels preferred to gas turbines.

• OSTI ID: 6683672
• Journal Information: Public Utilities Fortnightly; (United States), Journal Name: Public Utilities Fortnightly; (United States) Vol. 131:3; ISSN PUFNAV; ISSN 0033-3808
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
296000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Electric Power
AVAILABILITY
CAPACITY
CAPITAL
CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS
CENTRAL AMERICA
COAL
COST ESTIMATION
COSTA RICA
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
EASTERN EUROPE
ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY
ELECTRICITY
ENERGY SOURCES
EQUIPMENT
EUROPE
EXPANSION
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
GAS TURBINES
HUNGARY
IMPLEMENTATION
IMPORTS
INDUSTRY
LATIN AMERICA
LOAD MANAGEMENT
MACHINERY
MANAGEMENT
MATERIALS
OPTIMIZATION
PLANNING
PRODUCTION
RESOURCES
RISK ASSESSMENT
TURBINES
TURBOMACHINERY