Forecast Master Program case studies: Final report

Technical Report · Wed Apr 01 04:00:00 EST 1987

OSTI ID:6656412

Engle, R; Granger, C; Ramanathan, R ^[1]

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1. ed.

This report presents a number of case studies using the computer software package FORECAST MASTER (FM). The series studied and forecast are, aggregate monthly California Electricity Sales, system energy demand data from Ontario Hydro, peak demand data for the residential and commercial customers of Georgia Power Company, Massachusetts Electric commercial sales, Narragansett Electric commercial sales, average and peak demand using Georgia Power Company data. A variety of methods have been studied by each of the contributing authors; trend line fitting, exponential smoothing, Box-Jenkins univariate forecasting, vector autoregression, state space modeling, dynamic econometric models including time-varying parameters and general order serial correlation corrections. Thus both the data sets and the modeling/forecasting methodologies are varied. A number of conclusions emerge from these case studies: FM provides a powerful set of tools to aid a utility forecaster, a great deal of caution should be exercised in pre-processing the data; it can have unintended side effects, diagnostic tests are very useful in econometric models, the Akaike Information Criterion is a useful measure for selecting the best state space model, and state space and econometric approaches both need equal amounts of care in model analysis and presentation.

• Research Organization: Quantitative Economic Research, Inc., San Diego, CA (USA); Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (USA)
• OSTI ID: 6656412
• Report Number(s): EPRI-EM-5114; ON: TI87920354
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
296000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Electric Power
COMMERCIAL SECTOR
COMPUTER CODES
ELECTRIC POWER
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
F CODES
FORECASTING
INDUSTRY
LOAD ANALYSIS
POWER
POWER DEMAND
PUBLIC UTILITIES
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR