Diffusion of emergency warning: Comparing empirical and simulation results
Conference
·
OSTI ID:6654896
As officials consider emergency warning systems to alert the public to potential danger in areas surrounding hazardous facilities, the issue of warning system effectiveness is of critical importance. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of an analysis on the timing of warning system information dissemination including the alert of the public and delivery of a warning message. A general model of the diffusion of emergency warning is specified as a logistic function. Alternative warning systems are characterized in terms of the parameters of the model, which generally constrain the diffusion process to account for judged maximum penetration of each system for various locations and likelihood of being in those places by time of day. The results indicate that the combination of either telephone ring-down warning systems or tone-alert radio systems combined with sirens provide the most effective warning system under conditions of either very rapid onset, or close proximity or both. These results indicate that single technology systems provide adequate warning effectiveness when available warning time (to the public after detection and the decision to warn) extends to as much as an hour. Moreover, telephone ring-down systems provide similar coverage at approximately 30 minutes of available public warning time. 36 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs.
- Research Organization:
- Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-84OR21400
- OSTI ID:
- 6654896
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-8810249-1; ON: DE89004171
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Emergency warning systems. Part 2. Warning systems - evaluation guidelines. Final report 1982-1983
Communication of emergency public warnings: A social science perspective and state-of-the-art assessment
Assessment of the need for dual indoor/outdoor warning systems and enhanced tone alert technologies in the Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program
Technical Report
·
Fri Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 1983
·
OSTI ID:5452784
Communication of emergency public warnings: A social science perspective and state-of-the-art assessment
Technical Report
·
Wed Aug 01 00:00:00 EDT 1990
·
OSTI ID:6137387
Assessment of the need for dual indoor/outdoor warning systems and enhanced tone alert technologies in the Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program
Technical Report
·
Fri May 01 00:00:00 EDT 1992
·
OSTI ID:10154509