Prospects for probabilistic safety assessment

Journal Article · · Nuclear Safety; (United States)

OSTI ID:6648207

Hirschberg, S ^[1]

---

1. Paul Scherrer Inst., Villigen (Switzerland)

This article provides some reflections on future developments of Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) in view of the present state of the art and evaluates current trends in the use of PSA for safety management. The main emphasis is on Level 1 PSA, although Level 2 aspects are also highlighted to some extent. As a starting point, the role of PSA is outlined from a historical perspective, demonstrating the rapid expansion of the uses of PSA. In this context the wide spectrum of PSA applications and the associated benefits to the users are in focus. It should be kept in mind, however, that PSA, in spite of its merits, is not a self-standing safety tool. It complements deterministic analysis and thus improves understanding and facilitating prioritization of safety issues. Significant progress in handling PSA limitations - such as reliability data, common-cause failures, human interactions, external events, accident progression, containment performance, and source-term issues - is described. This forms a background for expected future developments of PSA. Among the most important issues on the agenda for the future are PSA scope extensions, methodological improvements and computer code advancements, and full exploitation of the potential benefits of applications to operational safety management. Many PSA uses, if properly exercised, lead to safety improvements as well as major burden reductions. The article provides, in addition, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) perspective on the topics covered, as reflected in the current PSA programs of the agency. 74 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.

• OSTI ID: 6648207
• Journal Information: Nuclear Safety; (United States), Vol. 33:3; ISSN 0029-5604
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS
PERSONNEL
RADIATION HAZARDS
RADIATION ACCIDENTS
PROBABILITY
REACTOR SAFETY
MANAGEMENT
RELIABILITY
HISTORICAL ASPECTS
IAEA
ACCIDENTS
ANIMALS
HAZARDS
HEALTH HAZARDS
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
MAMMALS
MAN
PRIMATES
SAFETY
VERTEBRATES
220900* - Nuclear Reactor Technology- Reactor Safety
220200 - Nuclear Reactor Technology- Components & Accessories