Forecasting of the distribution of weekly peak electricity demand and its application to planned outage scheduling

Thesis/Dissertation · Sat Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1983

OSTI ID:6639662

Reifschneider, D L

This thesis addresses a common planning problem of electric utilities, the need to schedule generation-unit outages. All large generation plants must be taken offline annually for maintenance. The temporary loss of these units, though necessary, raises expected generation costs and increases the risk of power failures. Due to predictable variations in demand utilities, through the scheduling of outages, can minimize expected electric service costs to customers, where costs include both generation expenses and the cost of unmet demand. In order to solve this timing problem, a model is developed that describes a utility's annual expected costs, conditional on an arbitrary outage schedule. This model can be used to schedule outages to miminize expected social costs if a utility knows the distribution of peak hourly demand in each of the coming year's weeks. As an illustration the model is used to select 1981 outage schedules for two Wisconsin utilities. This exercise is dependent on knowledge of each utility's future distribution of peak demand, though, a subject which is the primary concern of the thesis.

• OSTI ID: 6639662
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
296000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Electric Power
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
320603 -- Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization-- Municipalities & Community Systems-- Public Utilities-- (1980-)
COST
ELECTRIC POWER
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
FORECASTING
MAINTENANCE
OPERATING COST
OUTAGES
PEAK LOAD
POWER
POWER PLANTS
PUBLIC UTILITIES