Basic principles of ROC analysis. [ROC = receiver operating characteristic, a factor used in decision making regarding the optimization of diagnostic techniques]

Journal Article · Sun Oct 01 04:00:00 EDT 1978 · Semin. Nucl. Med.; (United States)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0001-2998(78)80014-2· OSTI ID:6572951

Metz, C E

The limitations of diagnostic accuracy as a measure of decision performance require introduction of the concepts of the sensitivity and specificity of a diagnostic test. These measures and the related indices, true positive fraction and false positive fraction, are more meaningful than accuracy, yet do not provide a unique description of diagnostic performance because they depend on the arbitrary selection of a decision threshold. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is shown to be a simple yet complete empirical description of this decision threshold effect, indicating all possible combinations of the relative frequencies of the various kinds of correct and incorrect decisions. Practical experimental techniques for measuring ROC curves are described, and the issues of case selection and curve-fitting are discussed briefly. Possible generalizations of conventional ROC analysis to account for decision performance in complex diagnostic tasks are indicated. ROC analysis is shown to be related in a direct and natural way to cost/benefit analysis of diagnostic decision making. The concepts of average diagnostic cost and average net benefit are developed and used to identify the optimal compromise among various kinds of diagnostic error. Finally, the way in which ROC analysis can be employed to optimize diagnostic strategies is suggested.

• Research Organization: Univ. of Chicago
• OSTI ID: 6572951
• Journal Information: Semin. Nucl. Med.; (United States), Journal Name: Semin. Nucl. Med.; (United States) Vol. 8:4; ISSN SMNMA
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

550601* -- Medicine-- Unsealed Radionuclides in Diagnostics
62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS
990100 -- Management
COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
DECISION MAKING
DIAGNOSTIC TECHNIQUES
MEDICINE
NUCLEAR MEDICINE
OPTIMIZATION
SENSITIVITY
SPECIFICITY