Application of a methodology for evaluation of intertechnology tradeoffs: an illustrative case study

Technical Report · Sat Nov 01 04:00:00 EST 1980

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/6545414· OSTI ID:6545414

Whitfield, R. G.; Buehring, W. A.; Jusko, M. J.; Wolsko, T. D.

The problem is to select the best R and D strategy for developing long-term energy technologies that use coal. Best is defined in terms of 11 attributes, or measures of performance. Uncertainties were determined for the many, complex outcomes that may result from each strategy, and the information was systematically structured for evaluation. Preferences for the various outcomes were quantified by assessing a multi-attribute utility function over the 11 single attributes. The best alternative was chosen using maximization of expected utility as a guide. Extensive sensitivity analyses showed that one strategy, evolutionary development, was best over a wide range of plausible assumptions. This is partly because the alternative coal technologies are quite similar. However, the insights gained justify the extra effort spent in doing the utility analysis.

• Research Organization: Argonne National Lab., IL (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: W-31109-ENG-38
• OSTI ID: 6545414
• Report Number(s): ANL/EES-TM-127
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT
010000 -- Coal
Lignite
& Peat
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290500* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Research
Development
Demonstration
& Commercialization
294001 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Coal
CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS
COAL
ECONOMICS
ENERGY SOURCE DEVELOPMENT
ENERGY SOURCES
ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS
EVALUATION
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
MATERIALS
RESEARCH PROGRAMS
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT
TECHNOLOGY UTILIZATION