Off-site protective action selection for nuclear reactor accidents
A computer program based upon a model using a rational theoretical basis was developed to select appropriate off-site protective actions during nuclear reactor accidents. The special features of this program include (a) introduction of a precursor concept that uses the history of the accident progression to determine the spectrum of potential accident scenarios and estimates of the likelihoods of each accident scenario; (b) use of statistical decision theory and the concept of entropy of a spectrum to select the appropriate protective actions using either the minimax principle or the Bayes action method; and (c) introduction of methods to quantify evacuation travel risks. In order to illustrate the usefulness of the computer program, it was applied at three stages of the Three Mile Island accident scenario. Quantified non-radiological risks of evaluation have been used to establish dose thresholds below which evacuations are not justified. Using the Poisson analysis for evacuation risks and the absolute L-L BEIR model for radiation risk suggests 330 mrems as a reasonable value for this threshold. The usefulness of the program in developing a technical basis to select the size of the plume exposure pathway emergency planning zone (EPZ) is discussed. Quantified evacuation risks, cost, and the current rationale upon which the EPZ is based, justify an EPZ between 5-10 miles for WASH-1400 source-terms.
- Research Organization:
- Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park (USA)
- OSTI ID:
- 6520360
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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220900* -- Nuclear Reactor Technology-- Reactor Safety
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS
990220 -- Computers
Computerized Models
& Computer Programs-- (1987-1989)
ACCIDENTS
COMPUTER CODES
DECISION MAKING
DOSE LIMITS
EMERGENCY PLANS
EVACUATION
PRECURSOR
RADIATION PROTECTION
REACTOR ACCIDENTS
RISK ASSESSMENT
SAFETY STANDARDS
STANDARDS
TRAVEL