Ozone depletion calculations

Conference · Wed Apr 01 04:00:00 EST 1981

OSTI ID:6504854

Luther, F M; Chang, J S; Wuebbles, D J; Penner, J E

In order to assess the potential impact of proposed perturbations on stratospheric ozone, mathematical models were developed to handle the complex coupling between chemical, radiative, and dynamical processes. Basic concepts in stratospheric modeling are reviewed. Of the proposed atmospheric perturbations shown to have a potentially significant effect on stratospheric ozone, chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) present the most significant threat (the estimated change in total ozone being about - 9% at steady state for continued CFC release at the current rate). Two-dimensional model calculations indicate that the largest decreases in ozone would likely occur at high latitudes in winter or spring. Oxides of nitrogen (NO, NO/sub 2/, and N/sub 2/O) can have a significant impact on ozone. Estimated 1990 aircraft fleet emissions are computed to lead to an increase of total ozone of 1.3%. The models are sensitive to increases in N/sub 2/O, but this species is not projected to increase significantly over the next few decades. A doubling of CO/sub 2/ might lead to an increase in total ozone of about 6%, which would tend to offset the effect of a CFC perturbation. The decrease in ozone estimated to occur over the next several decades would be strongly dominated by the CFC perturbation because of the difference in the projected rates of increase of CFC's and CO/sub 2/ in the stratosphere. Although stratospheric models have been successful in diagnostic applications, significant uncertainties remain concerning their accuracy for prognostic applications. Uncertainties in chemical rate coefficients contribute most significantly to the uncertainty in model results. In spite of these uncertainties, there is good agreement between independent model predictions.

• Research Organization: Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-48
• OSTI ID: 6504854
• Report Number(s): UCRL-85814; CONF-8007102-1
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

500100 -- Environment
Atmospheric-- Basic Studies-- (-1989)
500200* -- Environment
Atmospheric-- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport-- (-1989)
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
ACCURACY
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY
CARBON COMPOUNDS
CARBON DIOXIDE
CARBON OXIDES
CHALCOGENIDES
CHEMISTRY
DISTURBANCES
EARTH ATMOSPHERE
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
NITRIC OXIDE
NITROGEN COMPOUNDS
NITROGEN DIOXIDE
NITROGEN OXIDES
NITROUS OXIDE
ORGANIC CHLORINE COMPOUNDS
ORGANIC COMPOUNDS
ORGANIC FLUORINE COMPOUNDS
ORGANIC HALOGEN COMPOUNDS
OXIDES
OXYGEN COMPOUNDS
OZONE
REMOVAL
SEASONAL VARIATIONS
STRATOSPHERE
VARIATIONS