Integration of measurements with atmospheric dispersion models: Source term estimation for dispersal of [sup 239]Pu due to non- nuclear detonation of high explosive

Conference · Thu Oct 01 00:00:00 EDT 1992

OSTI ID:6504804

Edwards, L L; Harvey, T F; Freis, R P ^[1]; Pitovranov, S E ^[2]; Chernokozhin, E V ^[3]

---

1. Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)
2. Inst. for Systems Studies, Moscow (Russian Federation)
3. Institut Ehksperimental'noj Meterologii, Obninsk (Russian Federation)

The accuracy associated with assessing the environmental consequences of an accidental release of radioactivity is highly dependent on our knowledge of the source term characteristics and, in the case when the radioactivity is condensed on particles, the particle size distribution, all of which are generally poorly known. This paper reports on the development of a numerical technique that integrates the radiological measurements with atmospheric dispersion modeling. This results in a more accurate particle-size distribution and particle injection height estimation when compared with measurements of high explosive dispersal of [sup 239]Pu. The estimation model is based on a non-linear least squares regression scheme coupled with the ARAC three-dimensional atmospheric dispersion models. The viability of the approach is evaluated by estimation of ADPIC model input parameters such as the ADPIC particle size mean aerodynamic diameter, the geometric standard deviation, and largest size. Additionally we estimate an optimal coupling coefficient'' between the particles and an explosive cloud rise model. The experimental data are taken from the Clean Slate 1 field experiment conducted during 1963 at the Tonopah Test Range in Nevada. The regression technique optimizes the agreement between the measured and model predicted concentrations of [sup 239]Pu by varying the model input parameters within their respective ranges of uncertainties. The technique generally estimated the measured concentrations within a factor of 1.5, with the worst estimate being within a factor of 5, very good in view of the complexity of the concentration measurements, the uncertainties associated with the meteorological data, and the limitations of the models. The best fit also suggest a smaller mean diameter and a smaller geometric standard deviation on the particle size as well as a slightly weaker particle to cloud coupling than previously reported.

• Research Organization: Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE; USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-48
• OSTI ID: 6504804
• Report Number(s): UCRL-JC-110844; CONF-921040-1; ON: DE93012550
• Resource Relation: Conference: 3. international workshop on real-time computing of the environmental consequences of an accidental release to atmosphere from a nuclear installation: decision-making support for offsite emergency management installation, Klais (Germany), 25-30 Oct 1992
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS//MATHEMATICS, COMPUTING, AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
EARTH ATMOSPHERE
RADIONUCLIDE MIGRATION
PLUTONIUM 239
ENVIRONMENTAL TRANSPORT
AEROSOLS
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
DETONATIONS
NUCLEAR EXPLOSIVES
PARTICLE SIZE
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
WIND
ACTINIDE ISOTOPES
ACTINIDE NUCLEI
ALPHA DECAY RADIOISOTOPES
COLLOIDS
DISPERSIONS
EVEN-ODD NUCLEI
EXPLOSIVES
HEAVY NUCLEI
ISOTOPES
MASS TRANSFER
MATHEMATICS
NUCLEI
PLUTONIUM ISOTOPES
RADIOISOTOPES
SIMULATION
SIZE
SOLS
SPONTANEOUS FISSION RADIOISOTOPES
STATISTICS
YEARS LIVING RADIOISOTOPES
540130* - Environment
Atmospheric- Radioactive Materials Monitoring & Transport- (1990-)
990200 - Mathematics & Computers