MINIMUF-85: an improved hf MUF prediction algorithm. Interim report
Technical Report
·
OSTI ID:6495537
An improved version of MINIMUF-3.5, called MINIMUF-85, was developed to predict accurate maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) under conditions of anomalously high sunspot numbers; also, to predict values of fOF2 suitable for ray-tracing applications, to predict m3000 factor values usable for determining the mirror height of reflection for oblique incidence propagation, and to predict accurate MUFs for paths having a portion of the path in the polar region. This version includes sunspot-number curve, reducing the error in predicted MUF values under very high sunspot-number dependence in both FOF2 and the M-factor calculations and provides a natural saturation in the MUF versus sunspot-number conditions. The polar and nonpolar FOF2 models are welded together by means of a folding function. MINIMUF-85 predicts 0.14 MHz low on average and has an error of 4.08 MHz; whereas; MINIMUF-3.5 had a bias of 0.51 MHz low and an 4.33 rms error when compared on the same 39 paths. The subjects of the choice of solar index for forecasting purposes, of sounder updating, of the effects of the underlying layers on both M-factor estimation and determination of the mirror height of reflection, and of future improvements in MINIMUF are discussed.
- Research Organization:
- Naval Ocean Systems Center, San Diego, CA (USA)
- OSTI ID:
- 6495537
- Report Number(s):
- AD-A-178305/9/XAB; NOSC/TR-1121
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
640104* -- Astrophysics & Cosmology-- Solar Phenomena
640201 -- Atmospheric Physics-- Auroral
Ionospheric
& Magetospheric Phenomena
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS
GENERAL PHYSICS
ALGORITHMS
COMPUTER CODES
CRITICAL FREQUENCY
DIMENSIONS
DISTURBANCES
EARTH ATMOSPHERE
F REGION
F2 LAYER
GRAPHS
HEIGHT
IONOSPHERE
IONOSPHERIC STORMS
M CODES
MATHEMATICAL LOGIC
MIRRORS
PLANETARY IONOSPHERES
POLAR REGIONS
REFLECTION
SOLAR ACTIVITY
STARSPOTS
STELLAR ACTIVITY
SUDDEN IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE
SUNSPOTS
640201 -- Atmospheric Physics-- Auroral
Ionospheric
& Magetospheric Phenomena
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS
GENERAL PHYSICS
ALGORITHMS
COMPUTER CODES
CRITICAL FREQUENCY
DIMENSIONS
DISTURBANCES
EARTH ATMOSPHERE
F REGION
F2 LAYER
GRAPHS
HEIGHT
IONOSPHERE
IONOSPHERIC STORMS
M CODES
MATHEMATICAL LOGIC
MIRRORS
PLANETARY IONOSPHERES
POLAR REGIONS
REFLECTION
SOLAR ACTIVITY
STARSPOTS
STELLAR ACTIVITY
SUDDEN IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE
SUNSPOTS