NBER working paper series: oil and the dollar. Working Paper No. 554
This paper develops a simple theoretical model of the effect of an oil price increase on exchange rates. The model shows that the direction of this effect depends on a comparison of the direct balance of payments burden of the higher oil price with the indirect balance of payments benefits of OPEC spending and investment. In the short run, what matters is whether the US share of world oil imports is more or less than its share of OPEC asset holdings; in the long run, whether its share of oil imports is more or less than its share of OPEC imports. Casual empiricism suggests that the initial effect and the long run effect will run in opposite directions; an oil price increase will initially lead to dollar appreciation, but eventually leads to dollar depreciation.
- OSTI ID:
- 6490755
- Report Number(s):
- NP-1902616
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
PETROLEUM
PRICES
IMPORTS
OPEC
USA
ECONOMICS
ENERGY SOURCES
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
NORTH AMERICA
OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES
020700* - Petroleum- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
294002 - Energy Planning & Policy- Petroleum