Forecasting urban highway travel for year 2005

Conference · Wed Aug 01 00:00:00 EDT 1990

OSTI ID:6488679

Miaou, Shaw-Pin ^[1]; Rathi, A K; Southworth, F; Greene, D L ^[2]

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1. Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (USA). Transportation Center
2. Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)

As part of a study aimed at estimating suburban highway needs for year 2005, models were developed for forecasting daily vehicle miles of travel (DVMT) for urban areas and its distribution by highway functional class, urban location, and urban area size. A regression model combining both time series and cross-sectional data is used to establish the relationship between the per capita DVMT of 339 urban areas in the United States and a set of explanatory variables including real income, employment, number of persons per household, number of driver licenses per 1000 persons, a variable representing highway supply deficiency, and a time variable. The dynamic shift over time in share of travel between urban locations and highway functional classes as urban areas grow in size is represented by conditional logit models. This paper presents the major findings from the forecasting and distribution models for urban highway travel in year 2005. 30 refs., 3 figs., 9 tabs.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)
• Sponsoring Organization: DOE/CE
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-84OR21400
• OSTI ID: 6488679
• Report Number(s): CONF-910126-3; ON: DE91000560
• Resource Relation: Conference: Annual transportation research board meeting, Washington, DC (USA), 13-17 Jan 1991
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
ROAD TRANSPORT
FORECASTING
URBAN AREAS
TRAVEL
ALGORITHMS
COMPUTER CALCULATIONS
COST
ECONOMETRICS
FUEL CONSUMPTION
HUMAN POPULATIONS
LICENSES
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
ROUTING
SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS
STATISTICAL DATA
STATISTICAL MODELS
TRANSPORTATION SECTOR
VEHICLES
DATA
ECONOMICS
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
INFORMATION
INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS
LAND TRANSPORT
MATHEMATICAL LOGIC
MATHEMATICS
NUMERICAL DATA
POPULATIONS
STATISTICS
TRANSPORT
320203* - Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization- Transportation- Land & Roadway
298000 - Energy Planning & Policy- Consumption & Utilization