Comparison of algorithms for computing generating-system reliability indexes. Final report

Technical Report · Tue Feb 01 04:00:00 EST 1983

OSTI ID:6486383

Mazumdar, M

This report describes the results of a research project to compare the accuracy of several algorithms for computing generating-system reliability indices. The principal index considered in this report is the loss-of-load probability (LOLP) measure. The approximate procedures considered are: (a) the method of cumulants, (b) distribution fitting method, (c) large-deviation procedure, and (d) Monte Carlo Importance Sampling procedure. Preliminary results are given to indicate the application of the large-deviation procedure in production costing computations. The approximate procedures are broadly reviewed from the viewpoint of statistical theory and their possible application in generation-reliability computations. By applying these procedures to computing the reliability indices for several representative utility systems, it is observed that the large-deviation method is generally very accurate. A set of recommended procedures to be used by the industry is given, and directions for further research are outlined.

• Research Organization: Pittsburgh Univ., PA (USA). Dept. of Industrial Engineering
• OSTI ID: 6486383
• Report Number(s): EPRI-EL-2874; ON: DE83901863
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
296001* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Electric Power Generation-- (-1989)
ALGORITHMS
COST
ENERGY SYSTEMS
MATHEMATICAL LOGIC
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
OPERATING COST
OUTAGES
POWER GENERATION
POWER SYSTEMS
PROBABILITY
RELIABILITY
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS