Price fluctuations and competition in the retail gasoline market: a time-series analysis

Book · Fri Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1982

OSTI ID:6485516

Schupack, M B

The use of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time-series models to differentiate the kind of competition prevailing for each observation is the major statistical innovation of this study. ARIMA models have no inherent internal interpretation. All interpretations have to be supplied from outside arguments. The main thrust of this paper was to develop these arguments. ARIMA models were fit to monthly series of retail gasoline prices for 54 cities for the 1963-1978 time period and pre- and post-embargo subperiods. A set of explanatory variables was developed to explain the price fluctuations and division of observations into subgroups according to type of time-series models. The variables referred to aspects of market structure and to the ability or desire of consumers to engage in price searching. A major empirical finding was a shift in the post-embargo period from the relationships that prevailed pre-embargo. The signs of the major structural variables were reversed in the post-embargo period. Whatever price competition took place post-embargo (it was much smaller than that obtaining pre-embargo) was stronger the more concentrated the market. 16 references, 6 tables.

• OSTI ID: 6485516
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020700* -- Petroleum-- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
294002 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
COMMERCIAL SECTOR
COMPETITION
DATA
FUELS
GASOLINE
INFORMATION
LIQUID FUELS
MARKET
MARKETERS
MATHEMATICS
NUMERICAL DATA
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
PRICES
RETAILERS
STATISTICAL DATA
TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS