Economic impacts of petroleum shortages and the implications for the freight-transportation industry

Conference · Fri Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1982

OSTI ID:6484790

Johnson, L R; Knorr, R E; Saricks, C L; Mendiratta, V B

The major economic impacts that result from petroleum-supply interruptions and the subsequent effects on the demand for freight transportation are described. This analysis involved a simulation of the effects of three different fuel-supply shortfalls on intercity freight transportation. The research included the use of three economic and transportation models to simulate the economic impacts of oil shortfalls and the resulting change in freight-transportation demand as expressed in tons shipped, ton-miles of travel, and fuel use. Economic effects are discussed for a base case and then for a 7%, 14%, and 23% petroleum shortfall. The demand for freight transportation is determined by the output of various commodity sectors which generate traffic for the truck, rail, water, air, and pipeline modes. The effects of various diesel-fuel-price levels are also examined. The analysis suggests that at low, or controlled, fuel prices the more significant impacts for freight movements will be the reduction in output in the bulk-commodity sectors, which are dominated by the waterway and rail modes. At high fuel prices (i.e., equilibrium levels), shipping is significantly decreased in all commodity sectors, but mode shifts are likely to occur from truck to rail, and even from rail to water in some corridors.

• Research Organization: Argonne National Lab., IL (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: W-31109-ENG-38
• OSTI ID: 6484790
• Report Number(s): CONF-820128-5; ON: DE83007604
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
294002 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
320200* -- Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization-- Transportation
CARGO
DIESEL FUELS
ECONOMIC IMPACT
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY SHORTAGES
ENERGY SOURCES
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL CONSUMPTION
FUELS
GASOLINE
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
LIQUID FUELS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
PETROLEUM
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
PRICES
SHORTAGES
TRANSPORTATION SECTOR