Analysis of uncertainties in interactive probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) models

Journal Article · Thu Apr 01 04:00:00 EST 1993 · Risk Analysis; (United States)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1993.tb01066.x· OSTI ID:6480156

Paula, H M; Campbell, D J; Guthrie, V H ^[1]

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1. JBF Associates, Inc., Knoxville, TN (United States)

Probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) has been used in nuclear, chemical, petrochemical, and several other industries. The probability and/or frequency results of most PSAs are based on average component unavailabilities during the mission of interest. While these average results are useful, they provide no indication of the significance of the facility's current status when one or more components are known to be out of service. Recently, several interactive computational models have been developed for nuclear power plants to allow the user to specify the plant's status at a particular time (i.e., to specify equipment known to be out of service) and then to receive updated PSA information. As with conventional PSA results, there are uncertainties associated with the numerical updated results. These uncertainties stem from a number of sources, including parameter uncertainty (uncertainty in equipment failure rates and human error probabilities). This paper presents an analysis of the impact of parameter uncertainty on updated PSA results. 6 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs.

• OSTI ID: 6480156
• Journal Information: Risk Analysis; (United States), Journal Name: Risk Analysis; (United States) Vol. 13:2; ISSN 0272-4332; ISSN RIANDF
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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