Interrelationships of energy and the economy: a supplemental to the National Energy Policy Plan required by Title VIII of the US Department of Energy Organization Act (Public Law 95-91)
The Department of Energy (DOE) is directed by Title VIII of the National Energy Policy Plan to evaluate periodicially the effects of current and projected energy trends on the economic health of the Nation. This study developed a fairly wide range of estimates for the impact of energy prices on such key variables as real gross national product, inflation, and the US trade balance. The retrospective analysis suggests that potential economic output in the near future is being affected adversely by such energy-price results from the recent past as lower investment, reduced labor force participation, slower growth in labor productivity, and reduced access to real energy resources. Policies that seek to stimulate the supply side of the economy (including policies that seek to stimulate the specific development of energy resources) are directed at offsetting such past effects. 1981-90 projections are presented of the impacts upon the economy in the three energy price scenarios developed in the document Energy Projections to the Year 2000. These projections show a range of impacts from alternative levels of energy prices upon each major component of the economy. Additional longer term projections for similar energy price scenarios are also made and analyzed. Finally, the projected impact of projected increases in energy prices on various economic groups is summarized by estimating changes in direct household energy expenditures - according to income, by regional location, and by rural-versus-urban residence. Special attention is given to projected impacts on low-income households and on the elderly. Significant differences of opinion remain among experts about the degree of energy's influence on economic growth, price stability, and, especially, productivity. However, it is hoped that the research reported here, along with continuing efforts, will enlarge the understanding of energy-economy interrelationships.
- Research Organization:
- USDOE Office of Policy, Planning and Analysis, Washington, DC
- OSTI ID:
- 6474115
- Report Number(s):
- DOE/PE-0030; ON: DE81027526
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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