Energy modeling for an uncertain future: supporting paper 2. Study of nuclear and alternative energy systems. [NRC study; period 1985--2010]
In June 1975, the National Research Council (NRC) undertook a comprehensive study of the Nation's prospective energy economy during the period 1985--2010, with special attention to the role of nuclear power among the alternative energy systems. The goal of the study is to assist the American people and government in formulating energy policy. An NRC-wide Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems (CONAES) was appointed to conduct the study. The six energy models used by the Modeling Resource Group were DRI Energy Model/172; Brookhaven DESOM/174; the SRI Energy Model/176; FEA PIES/179; ETA/180; the Nordhaus Simulation Model/181. General conclusions that cen be drawn are as follows: the expected value of the benefit of developing the advanced nuclear option is in the order of $3 billion when development takes the form of either an advanced converter or breeder after 2020; the economically worst decision among the 25 analyzed here was a program to develop both the advanced converter and the breeder very quickly; the estimates made about the value of perfect information, it is probable that the estimates made here would be slightly more favorable to developing advanced nuclear technologyif a substantial improvement in knowledge about the uncertain driving variables was attained; the standard deviations of the estimates of net benefits tend to cluster around $20 billion; and finally, it should be emphasized that all the estimates in this analysis are made without weighing the environmental costs of advanced nuclear reactor strategies into the calculations. (MCW)
- OSTI ID:
- 6470692
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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POLICY AND ECONOMY
ENERGY MODELS
ENERGY POLICY
ENERGY SOURCE DEVELOPMENT
ECONOMIC IMPACT
FORECASTING
NUCLEAR POWER
USA
DECISION MAKING
ENERGY CONSERVATION
ENERGY DEMAND
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
RISK ASSESSMENT
NORTH AMERICA
POWER
290100* - Energy Planning & Policy- Energy Analysis & Modeling
290600 - Energy Planning & Policy- Nuclear Energy
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