Optimal electric utility generation expansion under uncertainty

Thesis/Dissertation · Fri Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1982

OSTI ID:6456589

Borison, A B

This thesis presents a new approach to electric utility generation expansion planning under uncertainty. A comprehensive probabilistic model of the problem is formulated that focuses on the important strategic issues, including demand, technological and regulatory uncertainties, long-term generation expansion dynamics, and technological and regulatory constraints. Then, a four-part algorithm is described for finding the minimum feasible discounted expected cost generation expansion plan. The first and fundamental component of the algorithm is a dynamic programming procedure which addresses an elementary generation expansion subproblem that is unconstrained, static, and deterministic. Second, a primal-dual procedure is used to address a static, deterministic subproblem with capacity, energy, and capacity factor constraints. Third, a recursive technique is introduced to address a static, unconstrained subproblem that includes the effects of unscheduled outages. Finally, a decomposition technique is introduced to bridge the gap between the static subproblems and the dynamic, probabilistic generation expansion problem.

• OSTI ID: 6456589
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
296001* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Electric Power Generation-- (-1989)
ALGORITHMS
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
EXPANSION
ITERATIVE METHODS
MATHEMATICAL LOGIC
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
OPTIMIZATION
PLANNING
POWER DEMAND
PUBLIC UTILITIES
REGULATIONS