Validation of annual average air concentration predictions from the AIRDOS-EPA computer code

Conference · Thu Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1981

OSTI ID:6444786

Miller, C W; Fields, D E; Cotter, S J

The AIRDOS-EPA computer code is used to assess the annual doses to the general public resulting from releases of radionuclides to the atmosphere by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) facilities. This code uses a modified Gaussian plume equation to estimate air concentrations resulting from the release of a maximum of 36 radionuclides. Radionuclide concentrations in food products are estimated from the output of the atmospheric transport model using the terrestrial transport model described in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission Regulatory Guide 1.109. Doses to man at each distance and direction specified are estimated for up to eleven organs and five exposure modes. To properly use any environmental transport model, some estimate of the model's predictive accuracy must be obtained. Because of a lack of sufficient data for the ORNL site, one year of weekly average /sup 85/Kr concentrations observed at 13 stations located 30 to 150 km distant from an assumed-continuous point source at the Savannah River Plant, Aiken, South Carolina, have been used in a validation study of the atmospheric transport portion of AIRDOS-EPA. The predicted annual average concentration at each station exceeded the observed value in every case. The overprediction factor ranged from 1.4 to 3.4 with an average value of 2.4. Pearson's correlation between pairs of logarithms of observed and predicted values was r = 0.93. Based on a one-tailed students's test, we can be 98% confident that for this site under similar meteorological, release, and monitoring conditions no annual average air concentrations will be observed at the sampling stations in excess of those predicted by the code. As the averaging time of the prdiction decreases, however, the uncertainty in the prediction increases.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-26
• OSTI ID: 6444786
• Report Number(s): CONF-810462-2
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

500300* -- Environment
Atmospheric-- Radioactive Materials Monitoring & Transport-- (-1989)
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
AEROSOLS
BETA DECAY RADIOISOTOPES
BETA-MINUS DECAY RADIOISOTOPES
COLLOIDS
DATA
DATA COMPILATION
DISPERSIONS
DOSES
ENVIRONMENTAL TRANSPORT
EVEN-ODD NUCLEI
FORECASTING
GAUSSIAN PROCESSES
HOURS LIVING RADIOISOTOPES
INFORMATION
INTERMEDIATE MASS NUCLEI
ISOMERIC TRANSITION ISOTOPES
ISOTOPES
KRYPTON 85
KRYPTON ISOTOPES
MASS TRANSFER
MATERIALS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MONITORING
NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
NUCLEI
NUMERICAL DATA
ORNL
PLUMES
RADIATION DOSES
RADIATION MONITORING
RADIATION SOURCES
RADIOACTIVE AEROSOLS
RADIOACTIVE EFFLUENTS
RADIOACTIVE MATERIALS
RADIOACTIVE WASTES
RADIOISOTOPES
RADIONUCLIDE MIGRATION
SAVANNAH RIVER PLANT
SIMULATION
SOLS
TESTING
US AEC
US DOE
US ERDA
US ORGANIZATIONS
VALIDATION
WASTES
YEARS LIVING RADIOISOTOPES