Analyzing the reprocessing decision: plutonium recycle and nuclear proliferation. Final report

Technical Report · Wed Nov 01 04:00:00 EST 1978

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/6431427· OSTI ID:6431427

Heising, C. D.; Connolly, T. J.

The United States decision to defer indefinitely the reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel is examined in this thesis. Bayesian decision analysis is applied to develop a rational framework for the assessment of alternatives. Benefits and costs for each alternative are evaluated and compared in dollar terms to determine the optimal decision. A fuel cycle simulation model is constructed to assess the economic value of reprocessing light water reactor (LWR) spent fuel and recycling plutonium. In addition, a dynamic fuel substitution model is used to estimate the economic effects of the reprocessing decision's influence on the introduction date of the liquid metal fast breeder reactor (LMFBR). The analysis of benefits and costs is extended to include the social costs due to technological risks, such as accident risk, nuclear theft and/or sabotage, and international nuclear proliferation. These social costs are expressed in dollar terms for comparison with the conventional economic values. Results of the analysis indicate that the domestic social costs are less than the economic benefits by more than three orders of magnitude, and that the permit option dominates those of delay or prohibit. An examination of proliferation risk indicates a factor of approximately 7 between cost-benefits. Thus, on the basis of this analysis, it appears that to permit reprocessing is optimal over delaying or prohibiting the technology.

• Research Organization: Stanford Univ., CA (USA). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering
• OSTI ID: 6431427
• Report Number(s): EPRI-NP-931
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

050800 -- Nuclear Fuels-- Spent Fuels Reprocessing
055001 -- Nuclear Fuels-- Safeguards
Inspection
& Accountability-- Technical Aspects
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290600* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Nuclear Energy
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL PROTECTION
COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
DECISION MAKING
ECONOMICS
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
FUEL CYCLE
HAZARDS
HEALTH HAZARDS
PLUTONIUM RECYCLE
PROLIFERATION
REPROCESSING
RISK ASSESSMENT
SABOTAGE
SAFETY
SEPARATION PROCESSES
SOCIAL IMPACT
THEFT