EFFECTS: documentation and verification for a BEIR III cancer risk model based on age, sex, and population dynamics for BIOTRAN

Technical Report · Sun Sep 01 04:00:00 EDT 1985

OSTI ID:6431369

Wenzel, W J; Gallegos, A F

The computer simulation code EFFECTS is coupled with the radionuclide uptake and environmental transport strategies of the BIOTRAN code to predict cancer risks and deaths in a dynamic human population. Total mortalities due to all causes are incorporated with projected radiation-induced cancer mortalities caused by all previous chronic or acute radiation exposures of the population as a function of age and sex. Superpositioning radiation-induced cancer mortalities on current total mortalities in each age group allows a realistic and dynamic estimate of cancer risks for complex radiation exposure scenarios. EFFECTS was developed on the CDC 7600 and can be executed on the Cray computer system at Los Alamos National Laboratory. EFFECTS can simulate the upper boundary of cancer risk estimates where population exposures occur over many years and where organ burdens are integrated over the lifetime of the individual. This report gives new insight on age-specific cancer risks. As part of the code verification, the simulated impacts to a small population from natural background uranium and an accidental release of airborne plutonium are compared. For the long-term continuous exposure to natural background uranium, the impact to the population is very small (2 x 10/sup -6/ to 7 x 10/sup -6/ deaths/10,000 people) with young adults receiving the largest bone doses and risks. For the long-term intakes following a simulated accidental air release of plutonium, young teenagers receive the highest bone doses while young adults receive the largest risk. Simulating these two scenarios, using BIOTRAN/HUMTRN/EFFECTS, illustrates sufficient resolution to predict the age/sex-specific response from human populations from contaminants in our environment. 23 refs., 43 figs., 7 tabs.

• Research Organization: Los Alamos National Lab., NM (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-36
• OSTI ID: 6431369
• Report Number(s): LA-10371-MS; ON: DE86003285
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

560151* -- Radiation Effects on Animals-- Man
63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTANT EFFECTS ON LIVING ORGS. AND BIOL. MAT.
ACTINIDES
AGE DEPENDENCE
CHRONIC EXPOSURE
COMPUTER CODES
COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
DISEASES
E CODES
ELEMENTS
HUMAN POPULATIONS
METALS
MINERS
MINES
MORTALITY
NEOPLASMS
PERSONNEL
PLUTONIUM
POPULATIONS
RADIOINDUCTION
RISK ASSESSMENT
SEX DEPENDENCE
SIMULATION
THREE-DIMENSIONAL CALCULATIONS
TRANSURANIUM ELEMENTS
UNDERGROUND FACILITIES
URANIUM MINES