Correlation model to analyze dependent failures for probabilistic risk assessment

Thesis/Dissertation · Tue Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1985

OSTI ID:6426392

Dezfuli, H

A methodology is formulated to study the dependent (correlated) failures of various abnormal events in nuclear power plants. This methodology uses correlation analysis is a means for predicting and quantifying the dependent failures. Appropriate techniques are also developed to incorporate the dependent failure in quantifying fault trees and accident sequences. The uncertainty associated with each estimation in all of the developed techniques is addressed and quantified. To identify the relative importance of the degree of dependency (correlation) among events and to incorporate these dependencies in the quantification phase of PRA, the interdependency between a pair of events in expressed with the aid of the correlation coefficient. For the purpose of demonstrating the methodology, the data base used in the Accident Sequence Precursor Study (ASP) was adopted and simulated to obtain distributions for the correlation coefficients. A computer program entitled Correlation Coefficient Generator (CCG) was developed to generate a distribution for each correlation coefficient. The method of bootstrap technique was employed in the CCG computer code to determine confidence limits of the estimated correlation coefficients. A second computer program designated CORRELATE was also developed to obtain probability intervals for both fault trees and accident sequences with statistically correlated failure data.

• Research Organization: Maryland Univ., College Park (USA)
• OSTI ID: 6426392
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS
220900* -- Nuclear Reactor Technology-- Reactor Safety
ACCIDENTS
COMPUTER CODES
CORRELATION FUNCTIONS
FAULT TREE ANALYSIS
FUNCTIONS
NUCLEAR FACILITIES
NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS
POWER PLANTS
PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION
REACTOR ACCIDENTS
RISK ASSESSMENT
SYSTEM FAILURE ANALYSIS
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
THERMAL POWER PLANTS