Nuclear winter: global consequences of multiple nuclear explosions

Journal Article · Fri Dec 23 04:00:00 EST 1983 · Science (Washington, D.C.); (United States)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1126/science.222.4630.1283· OSTI ID:6357743

Turco, R P; Toon, O B; Ackerman, T P; Pollack, J B; Sagan, C

The potential global atmospheric and climatic consequences of nuclear war are investigated using models previously developed to study the effects of volcanic eruptions. Although the results are necessarily imprecise, the most probable first-order effects are serious. Significant hemispherical attenuation of the solar radiation flux and subfreezing land temperatures may be caused by fine dust raised in high-yield nuclear surface bursts and by smoke from fires. For many simulated exchanges of several thousand megatons, in which dust and smoke are generated and encircle the earth within 1 to 2 weeks, average light levels can be reduced to a few percent of ambient and land temperatures can reach -15/sup 0/ to -25/sup 0/C. The yield threshold for major optical and climatic consequences may be very low: only about 100 megatons detonated over major urban centers can create average hemispheric smoke optical depths greater than 2 for weeks and, subfreezing land temperatures for months. In a 5000-megaton war, at northern mid-latitude sites remote from targets, radioactive fallout on time scales of days to weeks can lead to chronic mean doses of up to 50 rads from external whole-body gamma-ray exposure, with a likely equal or greater internal dose from biologically active radionuclides. Large horizontal and vertical temperature gradients caused by adsorption of sunlight in smoke and dust clouds may greatly accelerate transport of particles and radioactivity from the Northern Hemisphere to the Southern Hemisphere. When combined with the prompt destruction from nuclear blast, fires, and fallout and the later enhancement of solar ultraviolet radiation due to ozone depletion, long-term exposure to cold, dark, and radioactivity could pose a serious threat to human survivors and to other species.

• Research Organization: R and D Associates, Marina del Rey, CA
• OSTI ID: 6357743
• Journal Information: Science (Washington, D.C.); (United States), Journal Name: Science (Washington, D.C.); (United States) Vol. 222; ISSN SCIEA
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290600 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Nuclear Energy
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE
450202* -- Explosions & Explosives-- Nuclear-- Weaponry-- (-1989)
500100 -- Environment
Atmospheric-- Basic Studies-- (-1989)
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
CLIMATES
ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS
EXPLOSIONS
NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
SEASONS
THERMONUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS
WARFARE
WEAPONS