Stochastic modeling of coal gasification combined cycle systems

Technical Report · Wed Nov 01 04:00:00 EST 1989

OSTI ID:6349967

Rubin, E S; Diwekar, U M

This report has described a new stochastic modeling capability for the ASPEN chemical process simulator. The stochastic modeling capability can be used to evaluate the performance of any chemical plant which can be formulated using the simulator. An application of this capability to the KRW IGCC system performance model also was illustrated. Cost models for selected IGCC systems also have been developed for implementation in ASPEN, as described in a separate topical report (Frey and Rubin, 1989). These models estimate the capital cost of various plant sections, as well as system operating and maintenance (O and M) costs, and total annual costs. The economic models are sensitive to key system flow rates and process design parameters, and are fully integrated with the IGCC performance models. The economic models can be used to quantify cost differences in system designs, and to identify key uncertainties important for comparative economic evaluations and research planning. Applications of probabilistic analysis combining uncertainties in performance and cost parameters also can be used to estimate process contingency factors (used in traditional cost analyses to represent additional costs that are expected to occur, but that are not included explicitly in the cost estimate), or to supplant the traditional contingency factor approach by incorporating expert knowledge about uncertainties at the more disaggregated level of process performance and cost parameters. Detailed case studies of IGCC system performance and cost employing the new stochastic modeling capability are planned as part of future efforts in this research. Two appendices are included with this report: technical reference manual for ASPEN stochastic block and users manual for stochastic simulation in ASPEN. 8 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

• Research Organization: Carnegie-Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (USA). Center for Energy and Environmental Studies
• Sponsoring Organization: DOE/FE
• DOE Contract Number: AC21-88MC24248
• OSTI ID: 6349967
• Report Number(s): DOE/MC/24248-2900; ON: DE90015570
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT
010404* -- Coal
Lignite
& Peat-- Gasification
20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS
200102 -- Fossil-Fueled Power Plants-- Power Cycles
A CODES
CAPITALIZED COST
CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS
CHALCOGENIDES
COAL
COAL GASIFICATION
COAL-FIRED GAS TURBINES
COMBINED-CYCLE POWER PLANTS
COMPUTER CODES
COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
COST
COST ESTIMATION
DISPERSIONS
DOCUMENT TYPES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
ECONOMICS
EFFICIENCY
ELEMENTS
ENERGY SOURCES
FLOW RATE
FLUIDIZED BEDS
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
GAS GENERATORS
GAS TURBINES
GASIFICATION
KRW GASIFICATION PROCESS
MACHINERY
MAINTENANCE
MANUALS
MATERIALS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MIXTURES
NITROGEN COMPOUNDS
NITROGEN OXIDES
NONMETALS
OPERATING COST
OXIDES
OXYGEN
OXYGEN COMPOUNDS
PERFORMANCE
POWER GENERATION
POWER PLANTS
PROBABILITY
PROCESS SOLUTIONS
SIMULATION
SOLUTIONS
STEAM
STEAM TURBINES
STOCHASTIC PROCESSES
THERMAL POWER PLANTS
THERMOCHEMICAL PROCESSES
TURBINES
TURBOMACHINERY