Methods for the elicitation and use of expert opinion in risk assessment: Phase 1, A critical evaluation and directions for future research
The purpose of this work is to critically review and evaluate the elicitation and use of expert opinion in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in light of the available empirical and theoretical results on expert opinion use. PRA practice is represented by five case studies selected to represent a variety of aspects of the problem: assessments of component failure rates and maintenance data; recent assessments of seismic hazard rates; assessments of containment phenomenology; assessments of human error rates; and accident precursor studies. The review has yielded mixed results. On the negative side, there appears to be little reliance on normative expertise in structuring the process of expert opinion elicitation and use; most applications instead rely primarily on the common sense of the experts involved in the analysis, which is not always an adequate guide. On the positive side, however, there is evidence that expert opinions can in fact be used well in practical settings. Suggestions are given for Phase II work to enhance the applicability and use of appropriate expert opinion methods.
- Research Organization:
- Pickard, Lowe and Garrick, Inc., Newport Beach, CA (USA); Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (USA). Div. of Reactor Accident Analysis
- OSTI ID:
- 6345547
- Report Number(s):
- NUREG/CR-4962; PLG-0533; ON: TI87900958
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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