Analysis of gas market issues for utilities. Final report
A confusing array of factors shape the outlook for natural gas by electric utilities. This report develops a simple framework for analyzing gas market issues from the utilities perspective. It describes the major influences behind utility gas supply, what we do and do not know about these influences and their relationships, and applies these insights to evaluate gas-related utility decisions. The project integrates the results of gas supply and demand research and communicates this information to a wide audience. Literature analysis was supplemented by interviews, discussions, and follow-up reviews with a broad sample of utility fuel planners, market analysts, gas producing and pipeline companies, government researchers, and principal investigators on EPRI gas-related projects. The report begins by presenting a framework that relates geologic, technological, economic and political factors to utility gas supply. Four of these influences are identified as particularly relevant to electric utilities: wellhead supply, premium demand, rate and allocation policy, and industrial boiler demand. The effects of wellhead supply and premium demand are nationwide and persistent; they are underlying forces. The effects of rate and allocation policy and industrial boiler demand are localized and variable; they are special conditions. Current information on each of these factors is presented and the extent of uncertainty is described. Hypothetical utility decisions are then evaluated using this information. Decisions on new generation capacity are shown to be most closely linked to the underlying forces, where a wait-and-see strategy is recommended. In contrast, fuel choice decisions are linked to inherently unpredicted special conditions, where flexible strategies and knowledge of risks are important. 48 references, 24 figures, 5 tables.
- Research Organization:
- Applied Decision Analysis, Inc., Menlo Park, CA (USA)
- OSTI ID:
- 6336835
- Report Number(s):
- EPRI-EA-3751; ON: TI85920037
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
NATURAL GAS
MARKET
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
FUEL SUPPLIES
PLANNING
REGULATIONS
ECONOMICS
ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY SUPPLIES
FLUIDS
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
PUBLIC UTILITIES
030600* - Natural Gas- Economic
Industrial
& Business Aspects
294003 - Energy Planning & Policy- Natural Gas