Analysis of gas market issues for utilities. Final report

Technical Report · Mon Oct 01 04:00:00 EDT 1984

OSTI ID:6336835

Borison, A B; Radlauer, M A

A confusing array of factors shape the outlook for natural gas by electric utilities. This report develops a simple framework for analyzing gas market issues from the utilities perspective. It describes the major influences behind utility gas supply, what we do and do not know about these influences and their relationships, and applies these insights to evaluate gas-related utility decisions. The project integrates the results of gas supply and demand research and communicates this information to a wide audience. Literature analysis was supplemented by interviews, discussions, and follow-up reviews with a broad sample of utility fuel planners, market analysts, gas producing and pipeline companies, government researchers, and principal investigators on EPRI gas-related projects. The report begins by presenting a framework that relates geologic, technological, economic and political factors to utility gas supply. Four of these influences are identified as particularly relevant to electric utilities: wellhead supply, premium demand, rate and allocation policy, and industrial boiler demand. The effects of wellhead supply and premium demand are nationwide and persistent; they are underlying forces. The effects of rate and allocation policy and industrial boiler demand are localized and variable; they are special conditions. Current information on each of these factors is presented and the extent of uncertainty is described. Hypothetical utility decisions are then evaluated using this information. Decisions on new generation capacity are shown to be most closely linked to the underlying forces, where a wait-and-see strategy is recommended. In contrast, fuel choice decisions are linked to inherently unpredicted special conditions, where flexible strategies and knowledge of risks are important. 48 references, 24 figures, 5 tables.

• Research Organization: Applied Decision Analysis, Inc., Menlo Park, CA (USA)
• OSTI ID: 6336835
• Report Number(s): EPRI-EA-3751; ON: TI85920037
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

03 NATURAL GAS
030600* -- Natural Gas-- Economic
Industrial
& Business Aspects
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
294003 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Natural Gas
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
ECONOMICS
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY SUPPLIES
FLUIDS
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUEL SUPPLIES
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
MARKET
NATURAL GAS
PLANNING
PUBLIC UTILITIES
REGULATIONS
SUPPLY AND DEMAND