Methods for probabilistic assessments of geologic hazards
Although risk analysis today is considered to include three separate aspects: (1) identifying sources of risk, (2) estimating probabilities quantitatively, and (3) evaluating consequences of risk, here, only estimation of probabilities for natural geologic events, processes, and phenomena is addressed. Ideally, evaluation of potential future hazards includes an objective determination of probabilities that has been derived from past occurrences of identical events or components contributing to complex processes or phenomena. In practice, however, data which would permit objective estimation of those probabilities of interest may not be adequate, or may not even exist. Another problem that arises normally, regardless of the extent of data, is that risk assessments involve estimating extreme values. Rarely are extreme values accurately predictable even when an empirical frequency distribution is established well by data. In the absence of objective methods for estimating probabilities of natural events or processes, subjective probabilities for the hazard must be established through Bayesian methods, expert opinion, or Delphi methods. Uncertainty of every probability determination must be stated for each component of an event, process, or phenomenon. These uncertainties also must be propagated through the quantitative analysis so that a realistic estimate of total uncertainty can be associated with each final probability estimate for a geologic hazard.
- Research Organization:
- Illinois Univ., Urbana (USA). Dept. of Geology; Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC04-76DP00789
- OSTI ID:
- 6329721
- Report Number(s):
- SAND-87-7106C; CONF-8704137-2; ON: DE87011721
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: MGUS '87, Redwood City, CA, USA, 13 Apr 1987; Other Information: Portions of this document are illegible in microfiche products
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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