Parameter estimation techniques and uncertainty in ground water flow model predictions

Conference · Mon Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1990

OSTI ID:6323972

Zimmerman, D A ^[1]; Davis, P A ^[2]

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1. GRAM, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (USA)
2. Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)

Quantification of uncertainty in predictions of nuclear waste repository performance is a requirement of Nuclear Regulatory Commission regulations governing the licensing of proposed geologic repositories for high-level radioactive waste disposal. One of the major uncertainties in these predictions is in estimating the ground-water travel time of radionuclides migrating from the repository to the accessible environment. The cause of much of this uncertainty has been attributed to a lack of knowledge about the hydrogeologic properties that control the movement of radionuclides through the aquifers. A major reason for this lack of knowledge is the paucity of data that is typically available for characterizing complex ground-water flow systems. Because of this, considerable effort has been put into developing parameter estimation techniques that infer property values in regions where no measurements exist. Currently, no single technique has been shown to be superior or even consistently conservative with respect to predictions of ground-water travel time. This work was undertaken to compare a number of parameter estimation techniques and to evaluate how differences in the parameter estimates and the estimation errors are reflected in the behavior of the flow model predictions. That is, we wished to determine to what degree uncertainties in flow model predictions may be affected simply by the choice of parameter estimation technique used. 3 refs., 2 figs.

• Research Organization: Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)
• Sponsoring Organization: DOE/RW
• DOE Contract Number: AC04-76DP00789
• OSTI ID: 6323972
• Report Number(s): SAND-90-1056C; CONF-910213--10; ON: DE91000405
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

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12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTES FROM NUCLEAR FACILITIES
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
540330 -- Environment
Aquatic-- Radioactive Materials Monitoring & Transport-- (1990-)
AQUIFERS
ARIZONA
COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS
ENVIRONMENTAL TRANSPORT
FEDERAL REGION IX
FLOW MODELS
GROUND WATER
HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTES
HYDROGEN COMPOUNDS
KRIGING
MANAGEMENT
MASS TRANSFER
MATERIALS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MATHEMATICS
MONTE CARLO METHOD
NORTH AMERICA
OXYGEN COMPOUNDS
RADIOACTIVE MATERIALS
RADIOACTIVE WASTES
RADIONUCLIDE MIGRATION
REGULATIONS
STATISTICS
UNDERGROUND DISPOSAL
USA
WASTE DISPOSAL
WASTE MANAGEMENT
WASTES
WATER