Fuel supplies and pricing outlook for 1983-1984

Journal Article · · Energy Econ., Policy Manage.; (United States)

OSTI ID:6319670

Meloe, T

Price and the business recession will restrain demand for fuels, not the lack of fuel supplies. The predictions of analysts vary from a new oil crisis to a long-term surplus with price cuts. High OPEC prices in the 70s reduced oil demand and relieved the pressure on existing production capacity, although free world oil consumption can increase at 1% or more per year without tightening supplies until the 1990s. Supply disruptions or lower OPEC production levels could affect oil availability, but the US is in a better position now because of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and its allocation arrangements with the International Energy Agency barring an embargo against the industrial world. There is no logic in the call for tariffs to raise oil prices today to cover the costs of future disruptions. A weak international oil market and current surpluses will constrain any price increases. Increases in domestic natural gas production are questionable because of the drop in oil prices and the large potential market for coal and nuclear energy if environmental, infrastructure, and licensing problems are resolved. (DCK)

• Research Organization: Texaco Inc., New York, NY
• OSTI ID: 6319670
• Journal Information: Energy Econ., Policy Manage.; (United States), Journal Name: Energy Econ., Policy Manage.; (United States) Vol. 2:3; ISSN EEPMD
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020700 -- Petroleum-- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290200 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Economics & Sociology
292000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
ENERGY SUPPLIES
FORECASTING
FUEL SUPPLIES
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES
OPEC
PRICES
SUPPLY DISRUPTION