Computer simulation of the probability that endangered whales will interact with oil spills

Technical Report · Sun Mar 01 04:00:00 EST 1987

OSTI ID:6310508

Reed, M; Jayko, K; Bowles, A; Anderson, E; Leatherwood, S

A numerical model system was developed to assess quantitatively the probability that endangered bowhead and gray whales will encounter spilled oil in Alaskan waters. Bowhead and gray whale migration and diving-surfacing models, and an oil-spill trajectory model comprise the system. The migration models were developed from conceptual considerations, then calibrated with and tested against observations. The movement of a whale point is governed by a random walk algorithm which stochastically follows a migratory pathway. The oil-spill model, developed under a series of other contracts, accounts for transport and spreading behavior in open water and in the presence of sea ice. Historical wind records and heavy, normal, or light ice cover data sets are selected at random to provide stochastic oil-spill scenarios for whale-oil interaction simulations.

• Research Organization: Applied Science Associates, Inc., Narragansett, RI (USA)
• OSTI ID: 6310508
• Report Number(s): PB-87-200085/XAB; ASA-84-35
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020900* -- Petroleum-- Environmental Aspects
520200 -- Environment
Aquatic-- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport-- (-1989)
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
ANIMALS
AQUATIC ORGANISMS
CETACEANS
COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
ENDANGERED SPECIES
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
MAMMALS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
OIL SPILLS
POLLUTION
SIMULATION
STOCHASTIC PROCESSES
TRAJECTORIES
VERTEBRATES
WATER POLLUTION