Computer simulation of the probability that endangered whales will interact with oil spills
A numerical model system was developed to assess quantitatively the probability that endangered bowhead and gray whales will encounter spilled oil in Alaskan waters. Bowhead and gray whale migration and diving-surfacing models, and an oil-spill trajectory model comprise the system. The migration models were developed from conceptual considerations, then calibrated with and tested against observations. The movement of a whale point is governed by a random walk algorithm which stochastically follows a migratory pathway. The oil-spill model, developed under a series of other contracts, accounts for transport and spreading behavior in open water and in the presence of sea ice. Historical wind records and heavy, normal, or light ice cover data sets are selected at random to provide stochastic oil-spill scenarios for whale-oil interaction simulations.
- Research Organization:
- Applied Science Associates, Inc., Narragansett, RI (USA)
- OSTI ID:
- 6310508
- Report Number(s):
- PB-87-200085/XAB; ASA-84-35
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: Supersedes PB--87-121307
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Feasibility of dynamic models of the interaction of potential oil spills with bowhead and gray whales in the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas
Aerial surveys of endangered whales in the Alaskan Chukchi and western Beaufort Seas, 1990. Final report, Oct-Nov 90
Related Subjects
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
CETACEANS
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
OIL SPILLS
COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
ENDANGERED SPECIES
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
STOCHASTIC PROCESSES
TRAJECTORIES
WATER POLLUTION
ANIMALS
AQUATIC ORGANISMS
MAMMALS
POLLUTION
SIMULATION
VERTEBRATES
020900* - Petroleum- Environmental Aspects
520200 - Environment
Aquatic- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport- (-1989)