Characteristics of surface cyclone forecasts in the Aviation Run of the Global Spectral Model

Journal Article · Mon Mar 01 04:00:00 EST 1993 · Weather and Forecasting; (United States)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1993)008<0087:COSCFI>2.0.CO;2· OSTI ID:6288581

Grumm, R H ^[1]

---

1. NOAA, Meteorological Operations Div., Camp Springs, MD (United States)

Results are presented of an evaluation of the performance of the Aviation Run (AVN) of the NMC Global Spectral Model (GSM) in predicting surface cyclones, which was conducted during the autumn of 1990 through the winter of 1992. The results indicated that the finer-resolution T126 GSM produces stronger and deeper cyclones than the old T80 GSM. The errors in AVN position forecasts of surface cyclones were smaller than those found in the NMC Nested Grid Model (NGM). The geographical distribution of the pressure errors were similar to those found in the NGM over eastern North America and the adjacent western Atlantic Ocean. The AVN tended to underpredict the 1000-500-mb thickness over surface cyclones, especially during the first 36 h of the forecast cycle. The T126 AVN forecasts are accurate enough to provide guidance for basic weather forecasts to three days, as has been done for the two-day forecasts for the past 25-30 yr. 19 refs.

• OSTI ID: 6288581
• Journal Information: Weather and Forecasting; (United States), Journal Name: Weather and Forecasting; (United States) Vol. 8:1; ISSN WEFOE3; ISSN 0882-8156
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
540110*
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE
COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
DISASTERS
FORECASTING
LEVELS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
RESOLUTION
SEA LEVEL
SIMULATION
STATISTICAL MODELS
STORMS
TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT
WEATHER