Long-term trends in oil and gas discovery rates in lower 48 United States
The Gas Research Institute (GRI), in association with Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. (EEA), has developed a data base characterizing the discovered oil and gas fields in the lower 48 United States. The number of fields in this data base reported to have been discovered since 1947 substantially exceeds the count presented in the AAPG survey of new-field discoveries since 1947. The greatest relative difference between the field counts is for fields larger than 10 million bbl of oil equivalent (BOE) (AAPG Class C fields or larger). Two factors contribute to the difference in reported discoveries by field size. First, the AAPG survey does not capture all new-field discoveries, particularly in the offshore. Second, the AAPG survey does not update field sizes past 6 years after the field discovery date. Because of reserve appreciation to discovered fields, discovery-trend data based on field-size data should be used with caution, particularly when field-size estimates have not been updated for a substantial period of time. Based on the GRI/EEA data base, the major decline in the discovery rates of large, new oil and gas fields in the lower 48 United States appears to have ended by the early 1960s. Since then, discovery rates seem to have improved. Thus, the outlook for future discoveries of large fields may be much better than previously believed.
- Research Organization:
- Gas Research Inst., Washington, DC
- OSTI ID:
- 6287653
- Journal Information:
- AAPG Bull. (See CODEN: AAPGB); (United States), Vol. 69:9
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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