Hourly dispatch simulation for a probabilistic load
Economic dispatch techniques are required as a part of unit commitment programs. However, the load at a future hour (e.g. 1 to 8 hours) is not known exactly. Only an estimate, which of course is uncertain, of the future load is available. Thus economic dispatch with a probabilistic load is investigated. This paper presents an economic dispatch algorithm which uses a probabilistic load model and minimizes the conditional (upon the state of power plant availability) expected thermal system production cost. For a fixed unit commitment, this algorithm establishes an equivalent system cost function which can be repetitively used for calculating the expected thermal system production costs for system loads with various means and variances. This algorithm is designed to be used in a short term system simulation model which considers the uncertainties and correlations associated with system loads. This equivalent system cost function also provides essential information for the better understanding of system behavior in terms of generation economics. This paper also reports the results of an investigation of the expected cost differences between dispatch with a deterministic load model and dispatch with a probabilistic load model.
- Research Organization:
- University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas
- OSTI ID:
- 6275798
- Journal Information:
- IEEE Trans. Power Appar. Syst.; (United States), Journal Name: IEEE Trans. Power Appar. Syst.; (United States) Journal Issue: 6 Vol. PAS-103:6; ISSN IEPSA
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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