Finite element probabilistic risk assessment of transmission line insulation flashovers caused by lightning strokes
A new method for probabilistic risk assessment of transmission line insulation flashovers caused by lightning strokes is presented. The utilized approach of applying the finite element method for probabilistic risk assessment is demonstrated to be very powerful. The reasons for this are two. First, the finite element method is inherently suitable for analysis of three dimensional spaces where the parameters, such as three variate probability densities of the lightning currents, are non-uniformly distributed. Second, the finite element method permits non-uniform discretization of the three dimensional probability spaces thus yielding high accuracy in critical regions, such as the area of the low probability events, while at the same time maintaining coarse discretization in the non-critical areas to keep the number of grid points and the size of the problem to a manageable low level. The finite element probabilistic risk assessment method presented here is based on a new multidimensional search algorithm. It utilizes an efficient iterative technique for finite element interpolation of the transmission line insulation flashover criteria computed with an electro-magnetic transients program. Compared to other available methods the new finite element probabilistic risk assessment method is significantly more accurate and approximately two orders of magnitude computationally more efficient. The method is especially suited for accurate assessment of rare, very low probability events.
- OSTI ID:
- 6272288
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: Thesis (Ph. D.)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Single-phase, multiphase, and multiple-circuit lightning flashovers of transmission lines. Volume 2. User's manual
Estimation of lightning shielding failures and mid-span back-flashovers based on the performance of EHV double circuit transmission lines