Software design and evaluation of a microcomputer-based automated load forecasting system

Journal Article · Mon May 01 04:00:00 EDT 1989 · IEEE Trans. Power Syst.; (United States)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1109/59.193840· OSTI ID:6264524

Rahman, S; Baba, M

This paper discusses the software design and evaluation of a microcomputer-based automated load forecasting system. This system is based on an IBM-RT/Pc microcomputer, and Extended Fortran, Ratfor and C languages. The on-line load and weather data collection, filtering, archiving and load forecasting are done in a totally automated fashion. The forecast is based on the relationship between weather and electric utility load (MW) as extracted from historical data. If ... Then type of rules and other statistical relationships form the rule-base of the algorithm. This rule-base has been applied to generate the hourly system load forecasts for 1983 and 1985 in the Virginia Power service area. A 24-hour load forecast takes 20 seconds on the IBM-RT/PC. The absolute annual averages of the hourly load forecast errors are found to be 1.437% and 1.298% for 1983 and 1986 respectively. Out of these two years there were only 9 occasions when the software failed to predict the hour of the daily peak. Moreover, these peaks were missed by only one hour. The load forecasting software discussed in this paper is sensitive to any direct load control (DLC) action taken by the electric utility. The software will issue a revised forecast if DLC is scheduled for implementation.

• Research Organization: Energy Systems Research Lab., Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Virginia Tech., Blacksburg, VA (US)
• OSTI ID: 6264524
• Journal Information: IEEE Trans. Power Syst.; (United States), Journal Name: IEEE Trans. Power Syst.; (United States) Vol. 4:2; ISSN ITPSE
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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