Japanese energy outlook and international cooperation

Conference · Mon Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1979 · Am. Chem. Soc., Div. Fuel Chem., Prepr.; (United States)

OSTI ID:6263477

Sakisaka, M

It was after the 1960s that the Japanese economy has become that of high-energy-consumption type. Energy consumption grew during the 1960s by an average annual rate of 13%. In Japan technological innovation bloomed in the 1960s. An affluent society of mass production and mass consumption was formed. This affluent society is a grand house built on petroleum. Demand for primary energy expanded from the 95 million tons of 1960 to 284 million tons in 1970, and 87% of this increase was supplied by petroleum - almost all imported. The Japanese economy will need to grow by about 6% annually in order to sustain full employment, to accomplish fuller social security and to develop public facilities. However, global reserves of petroleum are limited and when the production reserve ratio (R/P) declines to a certain level (10 to 15), production increase reaches its limit. This is the physical limit of petroleum production increase. On the other hand, it is doubtful if all oil countries will continue to produce petroleum at the maximum production rate. If OECD countries fail to conserve on energy and to develop and to expand the utilization of a substitute energy by the time of this transition, but increase demand for OPEC oil, the world will suffer from an oil shortage. Industrial nations will fight each other for securing oil (in which USSR will join), and the price of oil will surely rise and the world politics and economy will be hurt substantially. The lead time for energy conservation and the successful development of a substitute energy is from ten to fifteen years. Unless OECD countries establish a goal for reduced petroleum consumption in the future and immediately intensify their policy efforts for the energy conservation and substitution of petroleum, a chronic shortage of petroleum will be inevitable. And if this situation is not avoided, non-oil producing developing nations will be hurt seriously.

• OSTI ID: 6263477
• Report Number(s): CONF-790415-P2
• Conference Information: Journal Name: Am. Chem. Soc., Div. Fuel Chem., Prepr.; (United States) Journal Volume: 24:1
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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ASIA
CONSUMPTION RATES
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