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U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Doing a risk analysis

Conference ·
OSTI ID:6232850

Because of recent widespread interest in non-conventional energy systems, such as solar and wind, some recent studies have attempted to measure their risk as well. The problem is complicated by the fact that less is known about these systems than some others. The object of this paper is to outline the methodologies which can be used to determine the overall risk of any energy system. Termed risk accounting, it is calculated in analogy to energy accounting, which attempts to determine all the energy inputs into a system in comparison to the net output. The most important conclusion of this analysis is that the risk from non-conventional energy sources can be as high as, or even higher than that of conventional sources. In particular, it tends to be considerably higher than that of nuclear power, the newest of the conventional sources. The ratio is, in some cases, as high as 10 or 100. The results can be divided into occupational risk, borne by those who construct, fabricate and maintain the energy sources, and danger to members of the public. The total risk of a system is then the sum of occupational and public risk. The occupational man-days lost per unit energy averaged over the system lifetime are given. The highest value is that of methanol, followed by solar space heating. The lowest is natural gas, followed by nuclear. For most of the non-conventional systems, the cause of large risk is high material acquisition and construction risk. Two of the conventional technologies, coal and oil, lead the list of public risk due to emissions produced by burning fuel. However, some non-conventional technologies, such as wind, also have relatively high public risk.

Research Organization:
Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)
DOE Contract Number:
W-7405-ENG-26
OSTI ID:
6232850
Report Number(s):
CONF-810480-1
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English