Probabilistic analysis of cost and performance uncertainty in technology evaluations
Cost and performance uncertainties are major factors in the evaluation and comparison of electricity generating technologies. Comparisons of alternative technologies are typically based on estimates of future cost and performance, and uncertainties in these estimates can limit the reliability of these comparisons. The use of probabilistic methods is helpful in identifying the consequences and risks of multiple uncertainties. The purpose of this report is to consider uncertainty in evaluations and to describe an analytical approach developed to treat the problem. Propabilistic simulations are used to develop quantitative and reproducible results. Major attention is given to the problem of interdependencies among various uncertain components. Examples that incorporate some characteristics of two coal-based technologies are included to demonstrate the current level of capability and to emphasize the strengths and limitations of the method. The methods developed and applied here are used to define the relative importance of uncertainties of particular technologies and to identify which technologies have potentially lower costs for electricity.
- Research Organization:
- Argonne National Lab., IL (USA)
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-31109-ENG-38
- OSTI ID:
- 6215430
- Report Number(s):
- ANL/EES-TM-146; ON: DE81027137
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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