Forecast of California car and truck fuel demand
The purpose of this work is to forecast likely future car and truck fuel demand in California in light of recent and possible additional improvements in vehicle efficiency. Forecasts of gasoline and diesel fuel demand are made based on projections of primary economic, demographic, and transportation technology variables. Projections of car and light truck stock and new sales are based on regression equations developed from historical data. Feasible future vehicle fuel economies are determined from technical improvements possible with existing technology. Several different cases of market-induced efficiency improvement are presented. Anticipated fuel economy improvements induced by federal mileage standards and rising fuel costs will cause lower future fuel demand, even though vehicle miles traveled will continue to increase both on a per capita and total basis. If only relatively low-cost fuel economy improvements are adopted after about 1985, when federal standards require no further improvements, fuel demand will decrease from the 1982 level of 11.7 billion gallons (gasoline equivalent) to 10.6 billion gallons in 2002, about a 9% reduction. Higher fuel economy levels, based on further refinements in existing technology, can produce an additional 7% reduction in fuel demand by 2002.
- Research Organization:
- California Energy Resources Conservation and Development Commission, Sacramento (USA). Assessment Div.
- OSTI ID:
- 6212470
- Report Number(s):
- P-300-83-002; ON: DE83902042
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
292000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
320203* -- Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization-- Transportation-- Land & Roadway
AUTOMOBILES
CALIFORNIA
EFFICIENCY
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
FEDERAL REGION IX
FORECASTING
FUEL CONSUMPTION
FUEL ECONOMY
NORTH AMERICA
STANDARDS
TRUCKS
USA
VEHICLES