Generating human reliability estimates using expert judgment. Volume 1. Main report

Technical Report · Thu Nov 01 04:00:00 EST 1984

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/6180932· OSTI ID:6180932

Comer, M K; Seaver, D A; Stillwell, W G; Gaddy, C D

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is conducting a research program to determine the practicality, acceptability, and usefulness of several different methods for obtaining human reliability data and estimates that can be used in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). One method, investigated as part of this overall research program, uses expert judgment to generate human error probability (HEP) estimates and associated uncertainty bounds. The project described in this document evaluated two techniques for using expert judgment: paired comparisons and direct numerical estimation. Volume 1 of this report provides a brief overview of the background of the project, the procedure for using psychological scaling techniques to generate HEP estimates and conclusions from evaluation of the techniques. Results of the evaluation indicate that techniques using expert judgment should be given strong consideration for use in developing HEP estimates. In addition, HEP estimates for 35 tasks related to boiling water reactors (BMRs) were obtained as part of the evaluation. These HEP estimates are also included in the report.

• Research Organization: General Physics Corp., Columbia, MD (USA); MAXIMA Corp., Bethesda, MD (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: AC04-76DP00789
• OSTI ID: 6180932
• Report Number(s): NUREG/CR-3688/1; SAND-84-7115/1; ON: TI85006167
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS
220900* -- Nuclear Reactor Technology-- Reactor Safety
ERRORS
HUMAN FACTORS
NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
NUCLEAR FACILITIES
NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS
POWER PLANTS
PROBABILITY
RELIABILITY
RISK ASSESSMENT
THERMAL POWER PLANTS
US NRC
US ORGANIZATIONS